Riyadh becomes the cockpit of the global minerals race

Part of Saudi Arabia's role will be to hold the ring between Russia, China and the US

Reuters | Saudi Arabia's minister of industry and mineral resources Bandar AlKhorayef has spent the past two years sharpening the country's mining proposition

Hordes of miners are arriving in Riyadh this week for the Future Minerals Forum, but few will be carrying picks or shovels. The FMF is as much about geopolitics, global macro-economics and international finance as it is about mining.

For the next few days, Saudi Arabia becomes the cockpit of a new great race in global affairs: the contest to secure and dominate the earth’s resources that will underpin energy transition, industrial resilience and national security for decades to come.

The kingdom wants to be more than a host. It wants to be a marketplace, an investor and eventually a producer and processor of strategic minerals, at a moment when the old certainties of global commodity markets are fracturing.

FMF, now in its third year, was conceived as a platform for what Saudi officials call “minerals diplomacy”, and that framing matters.

Unlike the oil market, mining does not yet have a single dominant organising body like Opec, nor a stable set of rules as to how supply chains are financed, regulated and secured. FMF is Saudi Arabia’s attempt to help write those rules, while simultaneously accelerating its own domestic mining ambitions.

Official estimates put the in-situ value of Saudi Arabia’s mineral endowment at around $2.5 trillion, largely concentrated in the Arabian Shield running down the western flank of the country.

Gold, phosphate and aluminium are already proven industries. Copper, zinc and lithium are the next frontier. Rare earths and processing capacity represent the strategic prize.

But FMF is as notable for who is in the room as for what lies beneath Saudi soil. The US, Russia and China – the big geo-strategic players – will all be present with varying degrees of profile.

"FMF provides a forum where Saudi Arabia can demonstrate its ability to host across geopolitical divides"

For Washington, the mood is more assertive than it has been in recent years. Under President Trump, critical minerals have moved firmly into the national security column. US officials and companies attending FMF are focused less on extraction and more on dominating processing, standards and supply chains.

The priority is diversification away from China without creating new dependencies. Saudi Arabia, with capital, energy and geopolitical weight, is an attractive partner in that strategy.

Talk of US-Saudi cooperation, via the US company MP Materials and the kingdom’s mining champion Ma’aden, on rare earth processing and magnet manufacturing is no longer speculative, but neither is it settled. Expect news on progress here.

Russia’s presence is quieter, but no less revealing. Sanctions have not removed Moscow from global mining markets, but they have narrowed its options. Russian companies arrive in Riyadh looking for capital, technology partnerships and routes into “friendly” jurisdictions.

FMF provides a forum where Russia can engage without sanctions being the headline, and where Saudi Arabia can demonstrate its ability to host across geopolitical divides.

China, meanwhile, is the forum’s unspoken reference point. Its grip on rare earth processing, battery materials and downstream manufacturing is the benchmark against which all diversification strategies are measured.

Chinese delegates at FMF are likely to be numerous, technical and understated, emphasising partnership, scale and execution rather than politics.

Part of the Saudi role is to hold the ring between these big players. Its minister of industry and mineral resources Bandar AlKhorayef has spent the past two years sharpening the kingdom’s mining proposition: improved geological data, faster licensing, competitive tenders and a clearer fiscal framework. The Ta’adeen platform is designed to make Saudi mining look investable in a way that global miners recognise.

Delivery now rests heavily with Ma’aden. Under CEO Robert Wilt the company is pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy, from gold and base metals to rare earths and lithium partnerships. Whether Ma’aden can scale like a global major in an era of volatile oil prices is a question delegates will debate.

Capital, meanwhile, flows through the Public Investment Fund and the investment vehicle Manara Minerals. Where Saudi capital chooses to go will be watched closely by miners and governments alike.

The challenges are substantial. Converting exploration licences into producing mines takes years. Building a skilled workforce and services ecosystem is harder in mining than in hydrocarbons.

Downstream processing makes Saudi Arabia a competitor to China among producer countries determined to capture more value themselves. Price volatility remains the great unknown: the forum will ask how investment can be sustained without clear price signals.

Yet the strategic logic is compelling. Energy transition and electrification are mineral-intensive, while supply chains are being redrawn along geopolitical lines.

In that environment, Saudi Arabia’s combination of capital, location and political weight gives it a fighting chance to become a global minerals power in its own right.

Frank Kane is Editor-at-Large of AGBI and an award-winning business journalist. He acts as a consultant to the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia

By Frank Kane

January 12, 2026, 5:22 PM